© Benaki Phytopathological Institute
Makowski
10
of United States milling wheat containing
Tille-
tia contraversa
.
Plant Disease
, 96: 560-573.
Phillips, S.J., Anderson, R.P. and Schapire, R.E. 2006.
Maximum entropy modeling of species geo-
graphic distributions.
Ecological modelling
, 190:
231-259.
Raftery, A.E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Pola-
kowski, M. 2005. Using Bayesian model aver-
aging to calibrate forecast ensembles.
Monthly
Weather Review
, 133: 1155-1174.
Raftery, A.E., Madigan, D. and Hoeting, J.A. 1997.
Bayesian model averaging for linear regression
models.
Journal of the American Statistical Asso-
ciation
, 92: 179-191.
Roberts, R.G., Hale, C.N., van der Zwet, T., Miller, C.E.
and Redin, S.C. 1998. The potential for spread of
Erwinia amylovora
and fire blight via commer-
cial apple fruit; a critical review and risk assess-
ment.
Crop Protection
, 17:19-28
Roura-Pascual, N., Brotons, L.I., Peterson, A.T. and
Thuiller, W. 2009. Consensual predictions of po-
tential distributional areas for invasive species:
a case study of Argentine ants in the Iberian
Peninsula.
Biological Invasions
, 11: 1017-1031.
Roura-Pascual, N., Krug, R.M., Richardson, D.M. and
Hui, C. 2010. Spatially-explicit sensitivity anal-
ysis for conservation management: explor-
ing the influence of decisions in invasive alien
plant management.
Diversity and Distributions
,
16: 426-438.
Saltelli, A., Chan, K. and Scott, M. 2000.
Sensitivi-
ty Analysis
. In Saltelli
et al
. (eds).
Probability and
Statistics
. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Smith, C.S., Lonsdale, W.M. and Fortune, J. 1999.
When to ignore advice: invasion predictions
and decision theory.
Biological Invasions
, 1: 89-
96.
Stansbury, C.D., McKirdy, S.J., Diggle, A.J. and Riley,
I.T. 2002. Modeling the risk of entry, establish-
ment, spread, containment, and economic im-
pact of
Tilletia indica
, the cause of karnal bunt
of wheat, using an Australian context.
Phytopa-
thology
, 92: 321-331.
Townsend Peterson, A., Papeç, M. and Soberon, J.
2008. Rethinking receiver operating character-
istic analysis applications in ecological niche
modeling.
Ecological modelling
, 213: 63-72.
Vaclavik, T. and Meentemeyer, R.K. 2009. Invasive
species distribution modelling (iSDM): Are ab-
sence data and dispersal constraints needed
to predict actual distribution?
Ecological Model-
ling
, 220: 3248-3258.
Viallefont, V., Raftery A.E. and Richardson, S. 2001.
Variable selection and Bayesian model averag-
ing in case-control studies.
Statistics in Medicine
,
20: 3215-3230.
Vose, D. 2000.
Risk Analysis
. 2
nd
edition. Wiley, Chich-
ester, UK.
Wisz, M.S., Hijmans, R.J., Li, J., Peterson, A.T., Gra-
ham, C.H., Guisan, A. and NCEAS. 2008. Effects
of sample size on the performance of species
distribution models.
Diversity and Distributions
,
14: 763-773.
Yang, Y. 2003. Regression with multiple candidate
models: selecting or mixing?
Statistica Sinica
, 13:
783-809.
Yen, J.D.L., Waters, E.K. and Hamilton, A.J. 2010. Co-
coa pod borer (
Conopomorpha cramerella
Snel-
len) in Papua New Guinea: Biosecurity models
for New Ireland and the Autonomous Region of
Bougainville.
Risk Analysis
, 30: 293-309.
Yuan, Z. and Yang, Y. 2005. Combining linear re-
gression models: when and how?
Journal of the
American Statistical Association
, 100: 1202-1214.
Young, A.M., Blackshaw, B., Maywald, G.F. and
Sutherst, R.W. 1999.
CLIMEX for Windows
1.1. Tu-
torials. CSIRO Melbourne, 49 pp.
Received: 3 June 2010; Accepted: 29 October 2010
ΑΡΘΡΟ ΑΝΑΣΚΟΠΗΣΗΣ
Ανάλυση αβεβαιότητας και ευαισθησίας των μοντέλων που
χρησιμοποιούνται στις αναλύσεις επικινδυνότητας επιβλαβών
οργανισμών
D. Makowski
Περίληψη
Στις Αναλύσεις Επικινδυνότητας Επιβλαβών Οργανισμών τα ποσοτικά μοντέλα έχουν πολ-
λά πλεονεκτήματα σε σχέση με τις ποιοτικές μεθόδους. Τα ποσοτικά μοντέλα δεν απαιτούν τον ορι-
σμό κατηγορικών διαβαθμίσεων και μπορούν να χρησιμοποιηθούν για τον υπολογισμό ποσοτικών πι-
θανοτήτων εισόδου και εγκατάστασης ενός επιβλαβούς οργανισμού καθώς και για την ποσοτικοποίη-
1...,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,...34